Howard Marks vs Proyecciones: Por qué saber dónde estamos importa más que predecir el futuro
Cada diciembre se repite el mismo ritual en todo el sector financiero. Los principales bancos de inversión de Wall Street juntan a sus mentes…
Samuel Jeffery is an award-winning media publisher and quantitative investment strategist who has spent over 15 years building verified digital authority. As the creator of Picture Perfect Portfolios, Samuel pioneered the concept of "Expanded Canvas Portfolios"—a proprietary framework that utilizes capital efficiency and return stacking to help sophisticated DIY investors move beyond the limitations of the traditional 60/40 model.Originally known for his work as "Nomadic Samuel"—where he earned two World Travel Awards for global marketing campaigns—Samuel pivoted his obsessive research skills to quantitative finance in 2020. His unique "Global Macro" perspective is informed by real-world survival; living in high-inflation economies like Argentina (and growing up in the boom-to-bust town of Gold River, BC) taught him that purchasing power preservation is not theoretical, but existential.Central to his strategy is the "1-2-3 Allocation Framework," a hierarchical approach to portfolio construction designed to weather any economic climate. Unlike traditional models that focus solely on asset selection, Samuel’s methodology prioritizes Capital Efficiency (expanding the canvas) as the foundation, secures safety through Maximum Diversification (incorporating uncorrelated alternatives), and seeks structural alpha through Factor Optimization.Today, Samuel’s research on Systematic Asset Allocation, Managed Futures, and Trend Following bridges the gap between institutional-grade strategies and the retail brokerage account. His work and portfolio models have been featured or cited by industry leaders including Nasdaq, Investing.com, Standpoint Funds, Moontower, Mount Lucas, Convexity Maven, and Alpha Architect. He does not just write about these strategies; he invests his own net worth in them.
Cada diciembre se repite el mismo ritual en todo el sector financiero. Los principales bancos de inversión de Wall Street juntan a sus mentes…
Every December, a familiar ritual plays out across the financial sector. Wall Street’s premier investment banks gather their brightest minds, run complex econometric models…
Mirá, la posta sobre la inversión defensiva (defensive investing) es esta: requiere un estómago de fierro para aguantar un aburrimiento institucional absoluto y una…
So here is the thing about defensive investing: it requires a stomach for intense institutional boredom and an absolute willingness to look completely out…
Cada vez que veo un hilo en las redes sociales sobre Howard Marks, noto el mismo patrón. Alguien empaqueta el “Pensamiento de Segundo Nivel”…
Every time I see a thread on social media about Howard Marks, I notice the same pattern. Someone packages “Second-Level Thinking” as if it’s…
Si pasás el tiempo suficiente recorriendo los pasillos de la academia financiera moderna, tarde o temprano te van a decir que el riesgo es…
If you spend enough time roaming the corridors of modern finance academia, you will eventually be told that risk is a neatly packaged Greek…
Si prendés la televisión financiera durante una corrección del mercado, tarde o temprano lo vas a ver a Howard Marks. Los conductores lo tratan…
If you flip on financial television during a market correction, you will eventually see Howard Marks. The anchors treat him like a secular saint,…
Acá está la paradoja intelectual que me viene quemando la cabeza hace años: David Swensen, en realidad, no quería que inviertas como David Swensen….
So here is the intellectual paradox that has bugged me for years: David Swensen did not actually want you to invest like David Swensen….
Odio el debate entre gestión activa y pasiva porque hace que gente inteligente termine sonando como si se hubiera unido a sectas rivales de…
I hate the active-versus-passive debate because it makes smart people sound like they joined rival potato cults. You know the drill. One side screams…
Le tengo una sospecha personal profunda a los gráficos de torta de asignación de activos. Se ven tan limpios, y esa suele ser la…
I have a deep personal suspicion of asset allocation pie charts. They look clean, which is usually the first warning sign. A bad pie…
No confío mucho en nada dentro de las finanzas que transforme el “no podés recuperar tu plata” en una supuesta prima o beneficio. Cuando…
I do not naturally trust anything in finance that turns “you can’t get your money back” into a premium. When an investment deck frames…
No le tengo fe a ninguna idea financiera una vez que se convierte en un gráfico de torta. Ahí es exactamente cuando la maquinaria…
I do not trust any finance idea once it becomes a pie chart. That is usually when the machinery disappears, the critical thinking shuts…
