Backwardation vs. Contango: Commodity Futures for Top Traders

Commodity futures trading is a distinctive realm within the larger universe of financial markets. Unlike equities, currencies, or bonds, commodities embody tangible resources—energy products, agricultural produce, metals, and more—and often follow cyclical patterns linked to seasons, production cycles, geopolitical events, or consumer demand. This close tie to real-world supply and demand means commodity markets can exhibit pricing peculiarities sometimes absent in other corners of finance.

infographic on commodity futures trading emphasizing backwardation and contango with elements like oil barrels, wheat and gold bars to represent cyclical commodity patterns

Two fundamental structures that often dominate how futures are priced relative to spot prices (or near-term deliveries) are backwardation and contango. When you examine a commodity futures curve, you might see that near-term contracts trade at a premium or discount to those further out on the calendar. Understanding why and how this happens can be pivotal for traders, producers, and end-users seeking to hedge or speculate on prices.

Spot, near contracts, far contracts—these matter.

infographic Backwardation vs Contango highlights key differences in futures curve shapes, with a focus on practical implications like roll yield and market fundamentals

Backwardation vs Contango

Backwardation implies a slope where near-month or front-month futures contracts trade at higher prices than longer-dated ones, leading to a downward sloping futures curve. Contango, on the other hand, reflects a market where futures prices increase with maturity—like an upward sloping curve from front to back. In plain language, backwardation means future prices are below the spot price, while contango means future prices are above the spot. This difference in shape might not sound like a big deal, but it heavily influences your returns if you’re rolling futures positions over time.

Why does this matter so much for “top traders” or anyone serious about commodity futures? For one, it shapes the roll yield—the profit or loss from rolling an expiring futures contract into the next month. In a backwardated market, you often gain a positive roll yield because you sell your soon-to-expire contract at a higher price and buy the next contract at a lower price. Conversely, in a contangoed market, you face a negative roll yield, as you sell your old contract cheaply and must purchase the next one more expensively. This difference can hamper or enhance your commodity strategy’s long-term returns, particularly if you hold positions in something like an oil or natural gas ETF that perpetually rolls from one month’s contract to the next.

Moreover, these structures reflect underlying market fundamentals. A backwardation scenario commonly signals strong near-term demand or supply shortfalls, while contango often indicates ample supply or storage availability, plus the usual “cost of carry” phenomenon (storage fees, insurance, interest, etc.). The cyclical nature of commodity production—like harvest times for grains or seasonal demand for heating fuels—further shapes whether a given commodity is in contango or backwardation.

We’ll undertake a comprehensive look at backwardation vs. contango.

infographic explains the distinction between backwardation and contango in commodity futures curves illustrate downward sloping prices for backwardation, signaling strong demand, and upward sloping prices for contango, reflecting storage costs and supply abundance. Icons representing commodities like oil and gold emphasize their role in market dynamics and the importance of roll yields in trading strategies.

6 Key Features

  1. What each term means and how it relates to the spot price.
  2. Why they occur in commodity futures, focusing on supply-demand fundamentals, cost of carry, and broader market psychology.
  3. How traders are impacted by these structures, with special attention to roll yields, hedging decisions, and speculative maneuvers.
  4. Real-world examples from energy markets to precious metals, highlighting how these phenomena can change swiftly under different conditions.
  5. Key takeaways for any serious participant in commodity futures, whether you’re a hedger seeking stable input costs or a speculator chasing alpha from price shifts.

If you’ve ever asked yourself why some commodity ETFs seem to struggle even when their underlying commodity’s spot price is inching upward, or if you’ve wondered why certain producers prefer a backwardated environment for hedging, the answers often revolve around these market structures. Backwardation and contango are thus not just academic labels. They resonate deeply with real trades, real profits, and real risk management.

Let’s start by defining these conditions.

explains the difference between backwardation and contango with Backwardation shows a downward-sloping curve, indicating near-term futures are priced higher than longer-term ones, often reflecting immediate demand. Contango illustrates an upward-sloping curve, where longer-term futures exceed near-term prices, typically due to storage costs and surplus conditions.

What Are Backwardation and Contango?

These two words—backwardation and contango—are staples of any serious commodity trader’s vocabulary. They describe how the price of futures contracts, over time, compares to each other and to the current spot market. In practical terms, are near-term futures more expensive or cheaper than those further out on the calendar?

infographic that visually explains the concept of backwardation in commodity futures features a downward-sloping graph with spot and futures prices, highlighting key characteristics like "Tight Supply," "Limited Storage," and "Immediate Consumption."

Backwardation Defined

Backwardation is present when a commodity’s futures curve slopes downward—meaning the nearest contract or spot price trades at a higher level than future maturities. If you check the quotes for monthly contracts, you might see, for instance:

  • Spot Price: $50
  • Next Month Futures: $49
  • Two-Month Futures: $48
  • Three-Month Futures: $46

Observing such a descending pattern, you’d say the market is in backwardation. Another way of putting it: the “back month” futures are at a discount compared to the “front month.” Typically, backwardation arises from immediate demand outpacing supply or from a sense of scarcity that compels users to pay a premium for immediate delivery. Storage or carrying costs might be overshadowed by the urgent need for the commodity now, thus lowering future prices relative to spot.

High spot, cheap future = backwardation.

Typical Characteristics of Backwardation

  1. Tight Supply / High Demand: When immediate supply is limited—perhaps due to production bottlenecks, weather disruptions, or other short-term crises—buyers scramble for near-term supply, lifting near-month prices above deferred months.
  2. Limited Storage: Commodities that are expensive or difficult to store can more readily fall into backwardation. If producers or traders find it costly to hold inventory, they have less incentive to push future prices upward.
  3. Immediate Consumption: Certain commodities (like certain perishable goods or critical industrial feedstocks) might see backwardation if users prefer to secure them right now at a premium rather than rely on uncertain future availability.

A hallmark consequence: roll yield is typically positive for a long position if the market stays in backwardation, since rolling from a higher near-month to a lower next-month contract can yield a small profit each time.

concept of contango in commodity futures markets with a vintage-inspired design upward-sloping graph labeled with spot and futures prices, emphasizing characteristics like "Ample Supply," "Carrying Cost Logic," and "Deferred Demand."

Contango Defined

In stark contrast, contango emerges when futures prices increase with longer maturities. The spot or near-month price is lower, while future contracts are progressively more expensive. For instance, you might see:

  • Spot Price: $70
  • Next Month Futures: $72
  • Two-Month Futures: $73
  • Three-Month Futures: $75

This upward slope indicates contango. The typical explanation involves the cost of carry: market participants reason that if they hold the commodity for three months, they must pay for storage, insurance, and financing, and they want to be compensated for that overhead. Therefore, the longer the holding period, the higher the futures price.

Low spot, high future = contango.

Typical Characteristics of Contango

  1. Ample Supply: If supply isn’t particularly constrained, producers and inventory holders have no pressing reason to raise near-term prices.
  2. Carrying Cost Logic: Storage, insurance, and interest on capital tie up resources when holding the underlying commodity. Futures prices must reflect these costs, or else storing the commodity would be unprofitable.
  3. Deferred Demand: Sometimes, users may prefer a future date for consumption, pushing those contracts higher if immediate consumption is lower.

A central effect for traders in a contango market is negative roll yield. That means a long position rolling from a cheaper near-month contract to a more expensive next-month contract might lose money each roll. This phenomenon is frequently cited in certain oil or natural gas ETFs that see their returns eroded by persistent contango.

Key Differences

Putting it succinctly:

  • Backwardation: Spot price > future prices. Typically implies near-term tightness or strong demand. Offers positive roll yield for long positions.
  • Contango: Spot price < future prices. Reflects cost-of-carry influences or abundant supply. Typically yields negative roll yield for longs.

The slope of the futures curve matters greatly.

Both conditions can swing swiftly if supply-demand shifts or if major events (like an OPEC decision or a harvest failure) reshape market dynamics.

infographic explaining the factors influencing backwardation and contango drivers like supply, demand, and carrying costs the contrasting curves and essential market dynamics

Factors Influencing Backwardation and Contango

Markets rarely move in a vacuum. The shape of the futures curve results from numerous intertwined forces that set prices for each maturity. Understanding these factors is essential for any trader or hedger aiming to navigate backwardation or contango effectively. Let’s break down the main drivers.

It’s all about supply, demand, and carrying costs.

1. Supply and Demand Dynamics

The most direct factor is the interplay of supply and demand at different time horizons:

  • Backwardation: If near-term demand is robust (maybe due to seasonal spikes in consumption or disruptions in production), the front-month contract often rises above deferred months. This is especially true if storage is impractical or pricey, intensifying the desire to buy now rather than later.
  • Contango: If supply is plentiful or if demand is expected to be higher in the future, forward months might climb above spot. For instance, in some agricultural commodities, if a bumper crop is expected in a few months, the near-term supply might be ample enough to keep spot prices subdued, but future months might incorporate potential changes in weather or consumption patterns.

Example: In crude oil, a surprise OPEC cut might drive spot prices up abruptly if inventory is limited, creating backwardation. Conversely, if OPEC signals increased output to meet global needs, future months might rise to reflect a stable or rising cost environment, even if spot remains relatively low.

2. Cost of Carry

Cost of carry is a theoretical concept that calculates how much it costs to hold (or carry) a commodity over time. For physical goods, this includes storage fees, insurance, and interest on capital. Typically, if these costs are significant, futures prices will be higher than the spot price to compensate holders. This leads naturally to contango.

Why do we call it contango? Historically, it’s an old English term for carrying costs or interest in futures trading contexts. If storage or financing is cheap, contango might be mild or even absent. Meanwhile, if storing a commodity is extremely expensive or precarious, or if immediate demand is so high that nobody wants to store it for future use, the market can invert into backwardation.

Carry cost often pushes futures above spot.

3. Seasonality

A wide range of commodities face predictable seasonal cycles. Agricultural produce like corn or wheat might see an abundance around harvest time, resulting in a near-term supply glut. This scenario can push spot prices lower, generating contango as you move into future months when supply might normal or be consumed. On the flip side, heating oil or natural gas can see demand spike in winter, flipping the curve into backwardation if that demand is immediate and not easily bridged by existing inventories.

Seasonality can be intricate. For instance, if a commodity’s busiest usage period is the summer, you might see front-month futures for May or June climbing well above out-month contracts, especially if storage can’t fully cover that surge in consumption.

4. Market Sentiment

Beyond pure fundamentals, speculation and investor psychology influence curve shape. If traders widely anticipate that a commodity’s price will climb in the future, they might bid up longer-dated contracts, fueling contango. Conversely, if near-term supply is squeezed, pushing the front contract higher, but the market believes it’s a temporary phenomenon, you might see the forward months remain subdued, resulting in backwardation.

Risk Premium: Investors might also incorporate a risk premium into forward prices if they fear supply disruptions. This can tilt the curve shape. Such psychological or expectation-based elements intertwine with the cost-of-carry and fundamental supply-demand narratives.

Fears and forecasts shape the curve.

5. Arbitrage Opportunities

If the forward prices deviate significantly from what fundamentals or cost-of-carry would justify, arbitrageurs step in. They might buy spot and short futures (or vice versa) to lock in risk-free profits, thus driving the curve back toward contango or flattening it. Similarly, in a backwardation scenario, if the spread is too wide, certain traders might engage in reverse trades. These market forces keep a general equilibrium that ensures the shape of the curve doesn’t stray too far from a rational anchor—unless extreme conditions hamper arbitrage, like illiquid markets or major credit constraints.

6. External Shocks

Finally, black swan events or abrupt macro disruptions—war, pandemics, trade embargoes—can jolt markets in ways that defy typical patterns. A sudden shortage triggers backwardation; a collapse in demand might create unusual contango. For top traders, identifying these shifts early can be highly profitable, as the rest of the market scrambles to adjust. But these episodes also illustrate how dynamic the interplay of supply, demand, cost of carry, and sentiment can be.

Surprises can reshape curves fast.

In summary, backwardation typically signals immediate scarcity or strong near-term demand overshadowing future supply, while contango indicates a more leisurely approach to present supply, with an emphasis on future costs or demand. Both states profoundly affect how traders approach rolling futures and define the risk/reward for staying in positions.

How Backwardation and Contango Impact Traders compares effects of market structures on trading strategies focusing on roll yields and implications for profits and losses

How Backwardation and Contango Impact Traders

The theoretical intricacies of backwardation and contango have real, material consequences for those who buy or sell futures. Whether you’re a risk-averse hedger covering production or consumption needs, or a short-term speculator seeking to capitalize on price shifts, it’s vital to understand how these market structures shape your returns, especially if you’re rolling positions over time.

Theory meets practical trading.

Effect on Futures Rolling

A critical aspect of futures trading is the necessity to “roll” a position if you plan to maintain it beyond a given contract’s expiration. You close the expiring futures contract and simultaneously open a position in a next-month (or further out) contract. The cost or profit from this roll is known as the roll yield.

  1. Backwardation
    • When the market is in backwardation, the next-month contract is cheaper than the current contract.
    • If you’re long the commodity, rolling typically means selling the near-month at a higher price and buying the further-month at a lower price.
    • Result: A positive roll yield that can augment your total returns, effectively paying you for staying in the trade.
  2. Contango
    • In a contango structure, the next-month contract costs more than the expiring one.
    • If you remain long, you sell your near contract lower and buy the next contract higher.
    • Result: A negative roll yield—like a drag on your returns that accumulates over repeated rolls.

Implications: If you see an ETF that invests in, say, front-month crude oil futures, contango can hamper your returns because each monthly roll transitions you from a cheaper contract to a costlier one. Conversely, backwardation can actually enhance returns for that same ETF if the market structure remains consistent over time.

Roll yield can make or break your profitability.

Hedging Implications

Producers (like oil drillers or corn farmers) and consumers (like airlines for jet fuel) rely on futures to stabilize costs or revenues. The shape of the curve affects how they structure those hedges:

  • Backwardation: If near months are priced higher, a producer might see an advantage in hedging shorter durations, capturing higher near-term prices. Meanwhile, a consumer might consider waiting for cheaper future months—though the risk is that short-term tightness might persist.
  • Contango: When future prices are more expensive, a producer might lock in forward sales at higher prices, which is beneficial if you expect stable or rising production. A consumer might handle the carrying cost via their own storage or prefer to buy spot if near-month is cheaper, depending on how quickly they need the commodity.

In short, the direction of the curve can sway how hedgers time or distribute their hedges across different expiration months.

Speculative Strategies

For purely speculative traders aiming to exploit price moves, backwardation might encourage being net long, especially if fundamental conditions suggest that near-month scarcity could persist or deepen. The inherent positive roll yield can supplement your directional bet. In a contango market, you might weigh short positions or prefer short spreads if you anticipate that the cost-of-carry dynamic will hamper any attempt at a bullish rally. Additionally, certain contango structures might signal over-supplied conditions that favor a short approach.

Spread Trading: Many savvy futures traders do not hold outright positions but trade the spread between near-month and further-month contracts. By analyzing shifts in backwardation or contango, they can capitalize on the slope changes. For example, if you believe the curve will steepen from mild contango to deeper contango, you might buy the distant contract and short the near contract, hoping the price difference widens.

Curve trades are big in futures.

ETF and Index Impacts

Thousands of commodity-centric ETFs track futures-based indices rather than holding physical commodities. These funds typically implement a “roll strategy,” frequently shifting from the expiring contract to the next month’s. In a contango environment, you’ll see a performance drag over time as negative roll yield eats away returns. This partly explains why certain oil or natural gas ETFs have lagged the spot price’s performance over extended periods. On the other hand, if an ETF invests in a backwardated commodity, it may outperform the underlying spot price because the positive roll yield provides a tailwind.

Investors must remain cognizant of this dynamic, especially if they intend to hold commodity ETFs long term. Tracking the shape of the futures curve becomes essential for anticipating or diagnosing the “roll drag” or “roll gain” embedded in the product’s total return.

Some commodity ETFs quietly lose ground to contango.

Practical Tips for Traders

  1. Monitor Curve Shifts: The slope can shift from backwardation to contango, or vice versa, if fundamental conditions pivot. Keep an eye on the front-to-back contract spreads.
  2. Assess Carry Costs: Evaluate if the cost-of-carry or storage constraints imply a stable or volatile slope.
  3. Adapt Rolling Schedules: If you’re a portfolio manager, consider how frequently you roll positions and which part of the curve you prefer. Some advanced strategies skip the front month to mitigate short-term volatility or roll losses.
  4. Use Spread Instruments: Some futures exchanges list calendar spread futures that directly represent the price difference between two maturities. Trading these can be more efficient for curve-based speculation or hedging.

Success hinges on curve awareness.

Given these complexities, it’s enlightening to look at real examples—like oil markets flipping from deep contango in times of oversupply to backwardation when OPEC cuts production or demand spikes.

backwardation in energy markets during the 2007–2008 oil surge, showcasing a downward-sloping futures curve, symbols of high demand, and supply constraints

Real-World Examples and Case Studies

Talking about backwardation and contango in abstract terms is valuable, but seeing how they manifest in actual markets brings the conversation to life. Over the years, numerous episodes have showcased the power of these structures to shape returns, roil or soothe markets, and catch traders by surprise. Below, we highlight a few notable stories from energy to precious metals, plus a reflection on how quickly a market can flip from one structure to another.

Examples clarify these concepts.

Backwardation in Energy Markets

Crude Oil: 2007–2008 Surge

Around 2007-2008, oil prices skyrocketed toward $140 per barrel. The near-month contracts often traded at a premium to further-out months, indicating tightness in the spot market. Economic growth worldwide, especially in emerging economies, drove robust demand. Meanwhile, supply constraints and geopolitical tensions fanned the flames. The energy futures curve dipped downward, meaning near-month was pricier than out-month contracts—a classic backwardation scenario.

  • Implication: Traders holding front-month futures saw positive roll yield, as each time they rolled from a soon-to-expire contract to the next month, they’d buy cheaper forward prices. Profits stacked up as the market soared.
  • Aftermath: Once the financial crisis hit in mid-2008, everything reversed. Demand plunged, OPEC revised output, and contango reappeared as the economy slowed drastically.

This example highlights how robust global demand can produce backwardation. But it also underscores that backwardation can swiftly unravel when macro conditions pivot.

Natural Gas: Winter Heating Demand

Natural gas markets see strong seasonal patterns—heavy demand for heating in winter months, sometimes with storage constraints. During particularly cold winters or if storage levels are low, near-month prices can spike above distant contracts. Thus, backwardation emerges. Traders anticipating that the winter months would be especially cold might position themselves in near-month futures, collecting from both the price rise and roll yield as the curve remains inverted.

Harsh winter? Expect near-month spikes.

Contango in Precious Metals

Gold: Standard Cost-of-Carry

Gold is a prime example of a commodity with minimal industrial consumption but high investment demand. Because gold also has a cost of storage and insurance, you frequently see contango in gold futures: further-out contracts cost more, reflecting the “carrying charge.” Meanwhile, spot gold might trade at a discount to those future months. Unless there’s a sudden short-term scarcity or massive immediate demand, gold typically remains in contango, giving a negative roll yield for anyone passively holding gold futures over time.

  • Speculator’s Experience: If you buy gold futures in a contango environment, each monthly or quarterly roll sees you paying slightly more, cutting into your net returns.
  • When Might Gold Slip into Backwardation? Rarely, if near-month demand surges abruptly (e.g., panic over currency crises) while forward demand remains subdued. This phenomenon is less common, but not impossible if physical gold markets become tight.

Gold mostly contango, but watch for rare inversions.

Agricultural Commodities and Seasonality

Consider wheat. Post-harvest, supply is abundant, pushing near-month or spot prices down if farmers must offload produce. However, in the months leading to the next harvest, supply might dwindle, sparking backwardation if end-users scramble for limited stocks. On the other hand, if storage is widely available and interest rates are moderate, you might see contango as futures reflect the cost to carry wheat until a future date. The interplay of harvest cycles, global grain stocks, and shipping constraints can cause the futures curve to shift from one structure to another in a single growing season.

Historical Shifts

Oil Price Crash of 2014–2015: As U.S. shale production ramped up, global supply overwhelmed demand, turning the once backwardated oil market into a prolonged contango. Traders who were used to reaping positive roll yields from backwardation found themselves losing on the roll. That abrupt shift hammered certain commodity funds unprepared for the changed dynamic.

Metal Surplus: In times of large inventory build-ups for industrial metals (like copper), contango can deepen. If a big slowdown in manufacturing arrives, near-month demand tumbles, but people anticipate eventual usage returning, leading future months to stay priced higher. Overproduction also fosters contango by encouraging storage, which must be paid for, thus inflating forward pricing.

SMarkets pivot with supply, demand, and sentiment.

Lessons from Real-World Cases

  1. Continuous Monitoring: A commodity can flip from backwardation to contango (or vice versa) quite rapidly if supply/demand unexpectedly changes. Active traders or hedgers must regularly track the shape of the futures curve.
  2. Don’t Over-Rely on Past Patterns: A commodity that “always” seemed in backwardation might slip into contango if storage or production dynamics evolve. Each commodity’s environment can shift over months or years.
  3. Roll Strategy: Large institutional players paying attention to whether the market is in contango or backwardation can adapt their roll strategy accordingly—maybe staggering rolls across different months or using swaps or alternative instruments for better cost management.

All these real-world experiences demonstrate how backwardation and contango aren’t purely theoretical phenomena. They influence returns, reflect fundamental conditions, and can shift swiftly, demanding that top traders remain vigilant.

Conclusion

For traders and investors delving into commodity futures, understanding the nuances of backwardation and contango is invaluable. These two structures, which dictate whether near-month futures are priced above or below later maturities, shape the cost/benefit of rolling positions, reflect the underlying market’s immediate vs. future demand, and provide important signals about supply tightness or abundance. Seasoned professionals spend considerable effort monitoring these conditions daily, as the slope of the futures curve can be just as impactful for returns as the direction of the underlying spot price.

Curve slope matters as much as price direction.

Recap of Backwardation and Contango

  • Backwardation: Near-month or spot prices exceed further-out contracts. This often suggests short-term scarcity or heightened demand. Traders holding long positions see a positive roll yield, giving them a subtle advantage if the commodity remains in that state over an extended period. However, backwardation can vanish quickly if supply constraints ease or if demand softens, reversing the market structure and potentially catching unwary traders off guard.
  • Contango: Futures prices rise with longer maturities, typically due to the cost-of-carry elements such as storage fees, insurance, and interest. This scenario leads to a negative roll yield for a long position, meaning each time you roll to the next contract, you pay an incremental cost. It’s common in stable or oversupplied markets, and it can degrade the returns of commodity-based ETFs that rely on perpetual rolling.

Key Takeaways for Traders

  1. Check the Curve Shape: Never assess a commodity solely by spot price or near contract price. Inspect how the curve slopes across multiple future maturities. This slope can make or break your strategy.
  2. Roll Yield Awareness: If you plan on holding a position for multiple contract cycles, factor in whether you’ll gain from rolling or if you’ll face consistent losses. For example, contango can stealthily erode performance in an otherwise bullish environment, while backwardation can juice returns even if the price of the commodity doesn’t move dramatically.
  3. Align with Fundamentals: Understand why the market is backwardated or contangoed. Is there a legitimate short-term supply shock? Are carrying costs spiking? Is there an upcoming harvest or seasonal demand? This knowledge helps you forecast whether the curve shape will persist.
  4. Consider Underlying Liquidity: If you’re trading an ETF or dealing with a niche commodity, the curve can lie if underlying assets are illiquid or if authorized participants might vanish under stress. Crisp fundamentals help validate if the curve shape is stable or prone to abrupt flips.
  5. Use Hedging and Spread Trades: If you’re uncertain about direction but see a stable slope, consider spread trading or using options to reduce directional exposure while exploiting the shape of the curve. Similarly, producers and end-users can tailor hedges to minimize cost-of-carry burdens.

A well-informed trader is a prepared trader.

Final Thoughts

Backwardation vs. contango might seem like basic definitions, but their implications are far-reaching for both short-term speculators and long-term investors. Indeed, mastering the interplay of spot vs. futures can become a pivotal edge in your commodity market dealings. As a top trader or a diligent investor, your responsibility involves constantly reassessing whether the market environment aligns with your strategy’s assumptions. If you’re ignoring the slope of the futures curve, you could be forfeiting crucial insight into potential roll yield gains or losses, not to mention missing signals about immediate supply tightness or abundant long-term supply.

At the end of the day, the commodity domain remains a dynamic tapestry of fundamentals, cost-of-carry, seasonality, and market psychology. By grasping backwardation and contango, you’re better equipped to weave your way through the complexities, forging trades that stand on the sturdy foundation of real market mechanics. Whether your domain is energy, metals, or agriculture, awareness of the curve’s tilt is a must-have. Combine that knowledge with sound risk management, and you’ll find yourself well-prepared to navigate the peaks and valleys that define commodity futures.

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